U.S. Physical Therapy, Inc.

Over the two-year window USPH has spent most of its time under pressure, sliding from the $93.50 area of the 52-week high into a $59.00 low posted on May 7, 2026. What has happened since is a methodical repair: price has climbed +39.6% off that low, now sits above the SMA20 ($78.15) and the SMA60 ($70.38), and has fully erased the May down-swing on the fibonacci grid. The catch is that the confirmation layers have not kept pace — RSI has printed a lower high against a higher price high, OBV sits under its 20-day average on both timeframes, and Mansfield RS is still negative at −6.80%. The right lens here is a recovering but not yet market-leading name, with the burden of proof resting on the August 13 high of $82.76.

Snapshot values as of the Aug 14, 2026 close

① Price & Moving Averages

The moving-average stack reads constructive but not fully aligned: the close of $81.24 is above the SMA20 ($78.15) and the SMA60 ($70.38), and the SMA20 is comfortably above the SMA60, yet the close finished just under the SMA5 at $81.87. That single-day slip is the only crack in an otherwise textbook rising sequence. Bollinger width of 15.42% shows an expanded, not compressed, band, and the 90-day image shows price walking the upper half of the envelope for most of August — the shape of a live advance rather than a mean-reversion bounce. Both aVWAP anchors sit below price: the long-term anchor at $77.02 (Aug 7, 2025) and the short-term anchor at $69.21 (May 7, 2026), which means buyers from both windows are on average in profit and less likely to supply stock into strength. Overhead, the 2-year image shows a wide band of prior trading between here and the 52-week high of $93.50 that has turned back several attempts.

② Volume

The most recent session traded 364,100 shares against a 20-day average of 259,970 — a ratio of 1.40x. Elevated volume is normally a confirmation signal, but the 90-day image shows this particular expansion landing on a down candle, which makes it participation on the give-back rather than on the advance. A common beginner error is to treat any volume spike as bullish; the direction of the candle it attaches to is what gives it meaning. Through late July and early August the panel shows a fairly even mix of up-day and down-day volume with no single dominant accumulation cluster, consistent with a market that has repaired price faster than it has repaired conviction. For the advance to earn confirmation, an up day through the August 13 high of $82.76 would need volume at least at this same 1.4x level.

③ MACD

MACD sits at 2.73 against a signal line of 2.61, with a positive histogram of +0.12 and the most recent golden cross dated August 10, 2026. This is a fresh cross, but it is a fresh cross occurring far above the zero line rather than beneath it, which is the meaningful distinction: crossovers deep below zero mark the earliest phase of a turn, while crossovers at elevated levels sit inside a move that is already extended. The 90-day image shows the pair separating, briefly converging into a dead cross in early August, and then re-crossing — a hesitation rather than a clean break. The histogram is positive but thin, so the momentum edge here is directional in sign and modest in size.

④ RSI

RSI(14) reads 62.58 on the two-year frame and 62.59 on the 90-day frame — firmly in bullish territory but below the 70 overbought threshold. The chart flags a regular bearish divergence, and the peak data is specific: on July 9, 2026 price closed at $73.45 with RSI at 70.36; on August 13, 2026 price closed materially higher at $82.76 but RSI only reached 68.22. Price made the higher high; momentum did not follow. The honest reading is that this is a warning of possible exhaustion, not a confirmed top — a divergence can persist for weeks while price grinds higher, and it is only resolved when price itself reverses. Traders who short a divergence before price confirms are taking a position against a trend that remains intact on the price panel.

⑤ Mansfield RS

Mansfield RS vs the S&P 500 stands at −6.80% with a rising slope — below the zero line, so the stock is still lagging the index, but rising toward it. The trend in that number is the more useful part: a week ago the reading was −8.33 and a month ago −13.03, so the weekly change is +1.52 points and the monthly change is +6.22 points. In negative territory, an improving reading is correctly described as improving rather than accelerating — the stock is closing the gap on the index, not beating it. The 2-year panel shows how deep the hole was: RS spent most of the window between −10 and −30 and touched its lowest zone around the May low. Investors who screen on relative strength should note that this name has not yet crossed zero, and a negative RS reading is a legitimate reason to demand more confirmation from the other panels.

⑥ ATR & ADX

ATR(14) is $3.23, or 3.97% of the current price. That is a meaningful daily range: the entire distance from the close down to the SMA20 at $78.15 is under one ATR, so a single ordinary session can travel it without saying anything about the trend. Position sizing should be built from that number rather than from a fixed percentage. ADX reads 21.75 on the two-year frame and 22.08 on the 90-day frame, both inside the 20–25 emerging-trend band — a trend that has formed but has not yet reached the ADX > 25 threshold that marks a strong one. The 90-day image shows ADX drifting sideways in the low twenties for most of the summer while ATR climbed, a combination that describes widening daily ranges without a corresponding gain in directional conviction.

⑦ OBV

OBV is tagged early distribution on both timeframes, and both agree on the mechanism: OBV is below its own 20-day average with a flat slope. On the 90-day frame OBV is 1,013,500 against an MA20 of 1,139,510, a divergence of −11.06%. On the two-year frame OBV is −632,700 against an MA20 of −506,690, a divergence of −24.87% — the cumulative volume line has not recovered its two-year deficit even though price has recovered most of its. This is the clearest non-confirmation on the page: price is near the top of its 90-day range while the volume line has gone flat beneath its average. It does not invalidate the advance on its own, but a rally whose OBV refuses to make a matching high is a rally carrying less weight of committed buying than the price bars suggest.

Bull vs Bear

Scenarios

Key Levels nearest to price first, descending

What to Watch

• Whether the August 13 high of $82.76 is taken out on above-average volume. Until it is, the RSI bearish divergence stays live.
• OBV crossing back above its 20-day average on the 90-day frame. The early-distribution tag is the single largest non-confirmation on this chart.
• Mansfield RS crossing zero. It has climbed from −13.03 to −6.80 in a month; above zero, the underperformance argument disappears.
• The SMA20 and Bollinger midline, both at $78.15 — the first structural level beneath price and less than one ATR away.
• ADX pushing above 25 from the current 21.75–22.08, which would move this from an emerging trend to a strong one.

Conclusion

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