Iovance Biotherapeutics, Inc.

Snapshot as of Oct 2, 2026 close

① Price & Moving Averages

The trend structure is unambiguous: close $14.22 sits above SMA5 $13.74, SMA20 $10.65 and SMA60 $7.68, and that bullish ordering has held since August 7. The 90-day chart shows a staircase of advances — July 15 (+20.6%), the August 6 gap (+43.1% on about 4.5x volume, the 90-day aVWAP anchor), and then the September 29 guidance gap (+31.48%) — separated by sideways pauses rather than steady drift. The close is about a third above SMA20, which is a stretched distance by any measure, and the Bollinger Band width of 79.71% says the recent range is unusually wide.

The Fibonacci grid is drawn on the up-swing from the Sep 10 low $8.14 (100%) to the Sep 30 high $14.82 (0% of the swing). The 23.6% retracement at $13.24 is the first support; the 38.2% ($12.27) and 50% ($11.48) retracements both sit inside the still-unfilled September 29 gap ($11.17–$12.78). Above, the 52-week high of $15.30 and the Sep 30 close of $14.82 form the nearby ceiling. An older unfilled gap from August 6 ($4.55–$5.63) lies far below.

② Volume

The volume history is dominated by event spikes: the 78.2 million shares traded on September 29 (about 5.6x the 20-day average) is the tallest bar in the 90-day window, with the August 6 bar close behind. Follow-through volume faded quickly — 29.3 million on Sep 30, 16.0 million on Oct 1 and 11.9 million on Oct 2, a 0.646x ratio to the 20-day average of 18.43 million. Against a market where the median stock traded about 0.875x its own average that day, IOVA's Friday session was quiet even after adjustment (≈0.74x).

Quiet volume after a gap is a neutral-to-constructive sign when price holds, because it suggests holders are not rushing out. But it also means the last two red candles have not been tested by heavy supply or demand; the next high-volume session will say more about which side controls the gap zone.

③ MACD

MACD 1.638 is above its signal line 1.249 with a histogram of +0.389; the most recent golden cross came on September 16, well above the zero line, after a brief early-September dead cross that resolved without a meaningful price breakdown. The line steepened sharply on the September 29 gap. The chart suggests histogram bars have stopped expanding over the last session or two, which is typical as a gap ages; a shrinking histogram is a loss of acceleration, not a reversal on its own.

④ RSI

RSI is 79.91, firmly overbought, and the 90-day panel shows it has spent most of August and September above 70. Persistent overbought readings are characteristic of strong trends rather than an automatic warning, and no RSI divergence is flagged in either timeframe (the divergence fields are null). Still, the reading means a large part of the recent move is already in price; a slide back toward 60–70 while price holds above the gap would be a healthy reset, while a drop below 50 would signal that momentum has genuinely cooled.

⑤ Mansfield RS

Relative strength is the reason this stock occupies this issue's relative-strength slot. Mansfield RS vs the Nasdaq Composite is +208.72, up from +152.16 a week earlier and +124.68 a month earlier — positive and accelerating on both horizons. Importantly, the leadership predates the guidance event: RS was already above +120 a month ago, and the 2-year panel shows the line crossing above zero back in early 2026 and ratcheting higher since. The jump in the final week, however, is mostly the September 29 gap, so part of today's reading is a single-session effect.

⑥ ATR · ADX

ADX at 63.85 describes a very strong trend (ADX measures strength, not direction). ATR is $0.85, or 5.96% of price, and the panel shows it stepping up abruptly on the gap day. That matters for risk sizing: the 1× ATR reference is $13.37 and the 2× ATR reference is $12.53, about 11.9% below the close. A normal two-day wobble in this stock can easily cover one ATR, so tight references are likely to be triggered by noise.

⑦ OBV

OBV reads Accumulation on both timeframes: above its 20-day average and rising in the 2-year view (MA20 gap 218.37%) and in the 90-day view (49.56%). Those percentages measure distance from the moving average, not divergence; the OBV divergence field is null on both timeframes. On the 2-year panel OBV has recovered the entire 2024–25 drawdown and now sits at the top of its two-year range, which confirms that the price recovery has been carried by net buying volume rather than thin trading. The last two sessions dipped OBV slightly, in line with the two small down days.

Bull vs Bear

Scenarios

Key Levels

What to Watch

• Whether the Sep 29 gap ($11.17–$12.78) holds on any pullback — a full fill below $11.17 would turn the event leg into a failed breakout.
• Volume on the next push toward $14.82–$15.30: above-average volume confirms demand; thin volume makes a breakout suspect.
• RSI cooling from 79.91 toward 60–70 while price holds above $13.24 would be a constructive reset; RSI below 50 would not.
• Mansfield RS week-over-week: a drop below +152 would mean the guidance-gap boost is fading relative to the Nasdaq Composite.
• OBV staying above its MA20 — a cross below would be the first volume-based sign of distribution.

Conclusion

Past Analyses of This Stock same ticker · newest first

Other signals from this issue same publication date · 6 stocks

← Back to all analyses