Amplitude, Inc.

After a long slide into a spring 2026 low near $5.51, Amplitude turned sharply in July and has since more than doubled; the October 2 close of $14.52 is the highest close on the two-year chart and sits 1.6% under the $14.76 intraday 52-week high. Mansfield relative strength is +39.0% vs the Nasdaq Composite and accelerating. The short-term trigger is a breakout out of a five-week range: the first close above the prior 20-day high came on September 30, the same day Piper Sandler raised its price target on the stock, and the move was then extended on two sessions without a known event. Against that, RSI shows a bearish divergence against the late-August peak and ADX says the trend leg is not yet strong, so this page reads the setup as a range breakout that still has to prove it can hold.

Snapshot all figures from the chart JSON · as of October 2, 2026

① Price & Moving Averages

Chart unavailable — AMPL_price-90d-2026-10-04.svg

The two-year picture has three acts: a choppy range between roughly $8 and $14 through 2025, a steep decline in early 2026 that set the 52-week low of $5.51, and a reversal that began in July. The July 23 close of $8.05 is the low of the current up-swing; from there the stock climbed to a $14.30 close on August 28 (the intraday 52-week high of $14.76 printed that day), then spent five weeks in a range of roughly $12.39 to $14.30 while the shorter averages caught up. The October 2 close of $14.52 is the first close above that range and the highest close on the two-year chart (the February 2025 peak topped out at a $14.44 close, with an intraday high of $14.88).

The moving averages are fully stacked: close $14.52 above SMA5 $13.92, SMA20 $13.37 and SMA60 $11.91. SMA20 has been above SMA60 since June 5, the close has held above SMA60 since late June, and the full SMA5 > SMA20 > SMA60 order has been in place since September 17 — so the trend predates the breakout. The first close above the prior 20-day high came on September 30 ($13.85, +1.54%), which was the day Piper Sandler raised its price target to $18 from $13 (Overweight); that breakout session should not be read as independent of the analyst note. The price reaction that day was small, and the following two sessions — October 1 (+3.25%, to a $14.30 close that matched the August peak) and October 2 (+1.54%) — carried no identified event. The close now sits right at the upper Bollinger Band ($14.53) with a 17.31% band width. Both anchored VWAPs are well below: $11.30 on the 90-day frame and $9.35 on the two-year frame.

② Volume

Chart unavailable — AMPL_volume-90d-2026-10-04.svg

Base-date volume was 1,727,200 shares, 1.07× the 20-day average of 1,610,140. October 2 was a quiet session for the market as a whole — the median stock in our universe traded at about 0.875× its own 20-day average — so on a market-adjusted basis AMPL's participation was closer to 1.23×.

The heaviest bar of the breakout is September 30, the analyst-note day, at roughly twice the 20-day average. The two follow-through sessions ran near normal volume (about 0.88× on October 1 and about 1.08× on October 2). That pattern cuts both ways: the extension did not depend on another burst of buying, but it also was not accompanied by the kind of volume expansion that marks heavy accumulation. The 20-day average itself has drifted lower since August, which is typical of a consolidation. A raw ratio near 1× is the "adequate, not emphatic" zone — no shrinking-volume breakout, but no conviction surge either.

③ MACD

Chart unavailable — AMPL_macd-90d-2026-10-04.svg

MACD (0.429) crossed above its signal line (0.400) on October 2, turning the histogram positive at +0.029. This is a re-cross above zero: MACD peaked above 1.1 in late August, declined through September as price moved sideways, and has now turned back up without ever dropping below zero. That is the usual shape of a trend resuming after a pause rather than a new trend starting.

The cross is one session old and the histogram is barely positive, so it is fragile. MACD is also well below its August peak — momentum has improved but has not regained the strength of the summer advance. A histogram that keeps widening over the next week would support the breakout; a quick fold back under the signal line would mark the cross as noise from a narrow range.

④ RSI

Chart unavailable — AMPL_rsi-90d-2026-10-04.svg

RSI stands at 65.0 — firm, below the 70 overbought line. The chart flags a bearish RSI divergence in both frames: on August 28 the close was $14.30 with RSI at 76.8 (90-day; 76.7 on the two-year frame), while on October 2 the close was a higher $14.52 with RSI at a lower 65.0. Price made a higher closing high; momentum did not.

The gap between the two RSI peaks is wide — roughly twelve points — which makes this divergence more noticeable than a marginal one. Part of it is mechanical: the August peak came at the end of a near-vertical run, while the October high comes out of a sideways range, and RSI naturally reads lower after a range. Still, a divergence is a possibility of a turn, not a confirmation. A push back through 70 on the next leg would weaken it; a roll-over below 50 would give it teeth.

⑤ Mansfield Relative Strength

Chart unavailable — AMPL_rs-90d-2026-10-04.svg

Mansfield RS is +39.0% vs the Nasdaq Composite, tagged outperform with a rising slope, and it reads the same in both frames. Against the prior readings it is positive and accelerating: up 10.92 points from last week's 28.08 and up 6.52 points from last month's 32.48. The panel shows RS climbing out of deeply negative territory (near −40 in June) to cross zero in early August, then holding in a roughly 25–40 band through September.

This is the strongest structural argument on the page. The stock has been outperforming its benchmark by a wide margin for two months, held that lead through the September consolidation, and widened it again this week. Relative strength is a large part of why AMPL appears in this week's breakout screen (RS rank 96).

⑥ ATR & ADX

Chart unavailable — AMPL_atr_adx-90d-2026-10-04.svg

ATR is $0.67, or 4.6% of price — a wide daily range for a stock at this level, and near the top of its 90-day reading. That sets the objective stop references at $13.85 (1×ATR, −4.6%) and $13.18 (2×ATR, −9.2%). The 2×ATR level sits just below SMA20 ($13.37) and inside the September range, so a close there would mean the breakout has failed back into the consolidation.

ADX is 19.4 on the two-year frame and 19.7 on the 90-day frame, below 20 — the "ranging" zone. It peaked in August and has been declining through the September consolidation without turning up yet. ADX measures strength, not direction; at this level it says the breakout has not yet produced a trending phase. A rise back above 20–25 would confirm that the range has turned into a new trend leg.

⑦ OBV

Chart unavailable — AMPL_obv-90d-2026-10-04.svg

OBV is tagged early accumulation in both frames — above its 20-day average with a flat slope. The spread over its own MA20 is 33.24% on the two-year frame and 24.01% on the 90-day frame; that spread measures how far OBV sits above its average, not a divergence. Neither frame flags an OBV divergence.

On the 90-day panel OBV went sideways through September along with price and has lifted over the last three sessions to the top of that band. So unlike RSI, cumulative volume is broadly keeping pace with the price breakout. "Flat" slope means the accumulation tag is early rather than established; a sustained rise in OBV over the next week would turn this from a supportive reading into a confirming one.

Bull vs Bear

Scenarios

Key Levels

Deeper references: the 38.2% retracement at $11.91 coincides with SMA60 ($11.91), the 50% retracement is $11.18, and one unfilled support gap remains at $8.91–$9.10 (August 3, 2026) — two-year context rather than levels relevant to the next two weeks.

What to Watch

• A close above $14.76. Clearing the intraday 52-week high on above-average volume would be confirmation that does not rest on the analyst-note session.
• Holding $14.30 on any pullback. The former range top turning into support is the cleanest sign the breakout is real.
• RSI back through 70 and ADX above 20. Either would weaken the bearish divergence and show the range turning into a trend leg.
• SMA20 at $13.37 and the 2×ATR stop at $13.18. A close below this shelf puts price back inside the September range and breaks the setup.

Conclusion

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