Liquidity Services, Inc.

Snapshot as of October 2, 2026 close

① Price & Moving Averages

The two-year structure is a clear uptrend: price has climbed from the low $20s to the low $40s, and the 2-year anchored VWAP from December 2024 sits far below at $31.27. The current leg began with the August 6 jump of roughly +12% (an earnings-period session) that set the 90-day aVWAP anchor at $42.37; price has held above that line ever since apart from the early-September dip to $39.33. SMA5 crossed above SMA20 on September 14 to complete today's SMA5 > SMA20 > SMA60 alignment, on an ordinary +1.3% session at below-average volume — the alignment was not the product of a single event bar. On October 2 the stock gapped up and touched the 52-week high of $45.00 intraday, then gave it all back to close at $43.23, slightly below SMA5; the upper Bollinger Band at $44.19 and the $45.00 high now form the overhead ceiling, while SMA20/BB mid ($42.83) and the 90-day aVWAP ($42.37) are the nearest support shelf.

The 90-day Fibonacci grid is drawn on the September 1 low ($39.33) to September 15 close high ($43.38) swing; the 23.6% level ($42.42) and 38.2% level ($41.83) sit just above SMA60 ($41.30). The only unfilled gap on the 2-year chart is far below at $22.89–$25.08 (November 20, 2025) and is not relevant to the near-term map.

② Volume

Last session's volume was 373,400 shares, 1.58x the 20-day average of 236,855 — and with the broad U.S. market unusually quiet that day (median stock near 0.88x its own average), the market-adjusted figure is closer to 1.8x. That heavier volume came on a down close after the intraday test of $45.00, so it reads as supply meeting the high, not as confirmation of a breakout. The September 18 spike (about 2.8x on a small decline) was the quad-witching and S&P rebalance session, when volume was elevated market-wide, so it says little about LQDT specifically. Note that this is a thinly traded name (a few hundred thousand shares a day), so single-session volume reads can be noisy.

③ MACD

MACD is 0.482 against a signal line of 0.503, leaving a small negative histogram of −0.021 after a dead cross on September 30. The golden cross that preceded it (mid-September) produced only a shallow, flat histogram, far weaker than the August thrust when MACD ran well above 1.0. Both lines remain above zero, so this is a stall inside an uptrend rather than a bearish reversal, but momentum is clearly flattening rather than re-accelerating. A fresh golden cross with an expanding histogram would be the first sign the consolidation is resolving upward.

④ RSI

RSI is 55.57 — neutral-to-positive and nowhere near overbought. The JSON flags a bearish divergence: price made a marginally higher high ($43.58 on August 19 → $43.64 on October 1) while RSI made a lower high (66.35 → 61.05). That says the latest push to the top of the range carried less momentum than the August one. A divergence is a possibility of a top, not a confirmed top — it needs a follow-through break of support to matter — but it argues against assuming the next test of $45.00 will clear easily.

⑤ Mansfield RS vs the Nasdaq Composite

Mansfield RS is +15.66% vs the Nasdaq Composite, firmly in outperformance territory and positive throughout the 90-day window. Against one week ago (17.87) it is down 2.21 points — positive but slowing — while against one month ago (13.31) it is up 2.34 points, so the monthly trend of outperformance is still improving. The chart slope is flagged as falling, consistent with the weekly fade. Relative leadership is a genuine strength here; the watch item is whether the weekly slowdown turns into a steady decline.

⑥ ATR · ADX

ATR(14) is $1.23, or 2.86% of price, giving a 1× ATR reference of $42.00 and a 2× ATR reference of $40.76 (−5.71% from the close). ATR had drifted lower through September and ticked up at the end of the window with the wide October 2 range. ADX is 16.5, in ranging territory: the moving averages are aligned, but the market is not trending with any strength right now. That combination — aligned averages, low ADX, narrow Bollinger width — describes a coiled range whose direction has not yet been decided.

⑦ OBV

On-balance volume is the weakest panel. On the 90-day view OBV is in distribution — below its 20-day average and falling, 41.53% under that average (this is the gap to the MA20, not a divergence measure). On the 2-year view it is in early distribution, 4.83% below its MA20 with a flat slope. The JSON also records an OBV bearish divergence on the same two peaks as RSI: price $43.58 → $43.64 (August 19 → October 1) while 90-day OBV fell from 1,678,000 to 1,349,200 (2-year OBV 9,755,100 → 9,426,300). The heavy-volume down close on October 2 pushed OBV lower still. Volume flow is not confirming the price highs.

Bull Case vs Bear Case

Scenarios

Key Levels

What to Watch

• A daily close above $45.00 on above-average volume — the clean resolution of the range.
• Whether SMA20 ($42.83) and the 90-day aVWAP ($42.37) hold on any dip; losing both would favor the pullback scenario.
• OBV turning back above its 20-day average — needed to neutralize the volume divergence.
• MACD: a new golden cross with a widening histogram versus a deeper slide below the signal line.
• Mansfield RS: holding above +13% (last month's level) keeps relative leadership intact.

Conclusion

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