Arcturus Therapeutics Holdings Inc.

Two years of data show a stock that spent most of that stretch below its benchmark and bottomed at $5.50 before a violent July–August advance carried it to $16.17 on August 27. The longer-term frame is still constructive: the close of $14.73 sits above SMA20 ($13.72), SMA60 ($9.01), the 90-day anchored VWAP ($13.71) and the two-year anchored VWAP ($9.07), and Mansfield RS reads +42.0% against the Nasdaq Composite. The near-term tape, however, has gone the other way — MACD dead-crossed on September 9, the close is back below SMA5 ($14.98), and the last six sessions contain two declines of more than 5%. Those two facts sit in tension, and this page treats them as such rather than resolving them in either direction.

Snapshot all figures from the chart JSON · as of September 11, 2026

① Price & Moving Averages

Chart unavailable — ARCT_price-90d-2026-09-13.svg

The moving-average stack is bullish but incomplete. SMA5 $14.98 > SMA20 $13.72 > SMA60 $9.01 has held for 16 sessions since August 20, and the close has stayed above SMA20 and SMA60 for 25 sessions since August 7. What is missing is the top rung: at $14.73 the close is below SMA5, so the textbook Close > SMA5 > SMA20 > SMA60 alignment is not currently intact and the five-day line is acting as near-term resistance rather than support.

Bollinger width of 83.8% quantifies how far the bands were forced apart by the July–August advance; a reading that wide is a record of past expansion, not a forecast, and mid-band $13.72 doubles as the SMA20 line just below price. Fibonacci is anchored on the up-swing from $5.53 (July 24) to $16.17 (August 27): the 23.6% retracement sits at $13.66 and the 38.2% at $12.11, so the current pullback has not yet consumed even the shallowest of those levels. Overhead, the 90-day frame leaves one unfilled gap at $8.49–$9.33 (August 19) as distant support, while the two-year frame carries an unfilled gap dated October 22, 2025 spanning $11.69–$20.80 — price now trades inside that band, so its unfilled portion above the close runs to $20.80.

② Volume

Chart unavailable — ARCT_volume-90d-2026-09-13.svg

The final session traded 496,600 shares, just 0.32× the 20-day average of 1,549,735. That number cuts both ways and the honest reading keeps both edges. On one hand, the September decline happened on unremarkable turnover — the sessions that produced it ran between roughly a third and two-thirds of average volume, which is drift rather than distribution at scale. On the other hand, the +5.36% rebound into the base date came on the lightest volume of the stretch, and a bounce that thin is not confirmation of anything.

The chart's own volume panel shows where the real participation sat: the heavy bars cluster in the late-August advance, not in the September give-back. For a stock whose average turnover is around 1.5 million shares a day, liquidity is adequate, but position sizing should still respect an ATR that is 8.6% of price.

③ MACD

Chart unavailable — ARCT_macd-90d-2026-09-13.svg

This is the clearest bearish item on the page. MACD at 1.799 has crossed below its signal line at 2.064, the histogram has turned negative at −0.265, and the JSON dates that dead cross to September 9, 2026 — meaning zero consecutive sessions above the signal line as of the base date.

Context matters in both directions. The cross occurred far above the zero line, which is the signature of momentum cooling inside an established uptrend rather than a trend reversal being confirmed; a dead cross below zero would be a materially more negative reading. Equally, the histogram is the fastest-moving element here and it has already flipped, so the burden of proof now sits with the buyers. A histogram that shrinks back toward zero and turns positive would be the first mechanical sign the September cooling is finished.

④ RSI

Chart unavailable — ARCT_rsi-90d-2026-09-13.svg

RSI(14) reads 62.1 — above the 50 midline, below the 70 overbought threshold. The shape on the panel is a descent out of the overbought zone the stock occupied through late August, which is what a normal cooling phase looks like: the oscillator gives back the excess without breaking the midline.

No RSI divergence is flagged in the JSON, and both peak fields are null, so no peak-to-peak comparison is claimed here. The level to respect is 50: an RSI that holds above it while price consolidates keeps the uptrend reading defensible, whereas a decisive break below 50 would align the oscillator with the MACD cross and remove one of the remaining supports for the constructive case.

⑤ Mansfield Relative Strength

Chart unavailable — ARCT_rs-90d-2026-09-13.svg

Mansfield RS is +42.0% versus the Nasdaq Composite — firmly above the zero line, state "outperform". This is the single strongest number on the page and it is what put the stock into this week's screen. The anchor-free construction means the 2-year and 90-day panels agree, and they do.

The two quadrant calculations disagree with each other, which is worth stating plainly. Against the prior week's 46.79 the weekly change is −4.80 points: positive territory, decelerating. Against the prior month's −29.83 the monthly change is +71.83 points: positive territory, accelerating. In other words, the stock crossed from deep underperformance to strong outperformance over the month and has given a little of that edge back over the week. The JSON's slope field reads "rising", which describes the longer arc rather than the last five sessions — the weekly figure is the one that matches the recent tape.

⑥ ATR & ADX

Chart unavailable — ARCT_atr_adx-90d-2026-09-13.svg

ATR(14) is $1.27, or 8.6% of the closing price. That is a large volatility unit and it drives everything on the risk side of this page: a 2×ATR stop lands at $12.20, which is $2.53 or 17.2% below the close. Anyone sizing a position off a tighter stop is choosing to be shaken out by ordinary daily range rather than by a change in the chart.

ADX(14) at 53.4 confirms a strong trend, and the panel shows it climbing steeply through August. The standard warning applies with unusual force this week: ADX measures trend strength, not direction. A high ADX is equally consistent with a powerful advance and with a sharp decline, so it corroborates that the July–August move was a genuine trend rather than noise, but it says nothing about which way the next leg runs.

⑦ OBV

Chart unavailable — ARCT_obv-90d-2026-09-13.svg

Both timeframes tag OBV as accumulation, above its MA20 and rising. The 90-day OBV of 18,288,400 sits 26.78% above its own MA20 of 14,425,575; the 2-year series reads 479,900 against an MA20 of −3,382,925, a 114.19% spread. Note that this spread is the OBV-versus-MA20 gap — a measure of accumulation intensity — and not a divergence reading; the two-year figure in particular is inflated because its MA20 is close to zero.

The divergence field itself is the more interesting item, and it is the main counterweight to the MACD cross. Both frames flag a bullish divergence off the same two peaks: price fell from $14.76 on August 31 to $13.98 on September 10, while 90-day OBV rose from 14,337,500 to 17,791,800 over the same span (2-year OBV: −3,471,000 to −16,700). Price made the lower low; the volume series did not follow. That is the classic non-confirmation of a decline — but a divergence is a possibility of reversal, not a confirmed low, and it means nothing until price itself reclaims a level.

Bull Case vs Bear Case

Scenarios

Probabilities are subjective estimates derived from the chart structure described above, not statistical forecasts.

Key Levels

What to Watch

• SMA5 at $14.98. Reclaiming it restores the complete moving-average stack; continued closes below it keep the five-day line as resistance.
• The MACD histogram. It turned negative at −0.265 on the September 9 cross — a return toward zero and back above it is the first mechanical sign the cooling has run its course.
• The $13.66–$13.72 cluster. SMA20, the 90-day anchored VWAP and the 23.6% retracement all land within six cents of each other; that is where the constructive reading is tested.
• Volume on any recovery. The +5.36% rebound into the base date came on 0.32× average volume. A move back toward $16.17 on sub-average turnover is the classic unconfirmed breakout.
• Weekly relative strength. RS has slipped from 46.79 to 41.99. Stabilising above 40 keeps the leadership case; a continued slide would erode the one metric that is unambiguously strong.

Conclusion

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